Who’s Leading the Ballon d'Or 2025 Race?
Paris Saint‑Germain’s French winger Ousmane Dembele has vaulted to the top of the voting leaderboard after a breakthrough 2024/25 season. The £135.5 million‑price‑tagged forward finally shed the weight of his Barcelona transfer saga and delivered the numbers that matter: 35 goals and 16 assists across all competitions. Those contributions helped PSG secure a clean sweep of Ligue 1 and, more importantly, their inaugural Champions League crown – the kind of trophy haul that historically sways the Ballon d’Or panel.
Behind Dembele, Barcelona’s 17‑year‑old prodigy Lamine Yamal is the dark horse with a story that reads like a fairy‑tale. The Spaniard logged 22 goals and 12 assists, and his flair on the wing has already earned him a spot in Spain’s senior squad for Euro qualifiers. His performances have been highlighted by a last‑minute winner against Real Madrid that turned the Clásico into a headline‑grabbing spectacle.
Joining the top three is Brazilian winger Raphinha, also of Barcelona. Raphinha’s 18 goals and 15 assists were pivotal in the Catalan club’s domestic resurgence, and his consistency earned him Player of the Month twice during the campaign. While not as headline‑magnetic as Dembele or Yamal, his steady output across Ligue 1, La Liga, and the Champions League keeps him firmly in the conversation.
Why the Competition Is Tighter Than Ever
Mohamed Salah remains a staple name in any Ballon d’Or discussion. The Liverpool talisman added another 30‑goal season, becoming the first player in Premier League history to score 30+ goals in three consecutive campaigns. Salah’s knack for delivering in clutch moments – notably his brace against Manchester City that secured Liverpool’s top‑four finish – reinforces his reputation as a match‑winner.
Beyond the headline names, a cluster of dark‑horse candidates is emerging from various leagues. PSG’s teenage sensation Desire Doué has impressed with 12 goals and a handful of key assists in Ligue 1, while Georgian winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who also joined PSG this summer, contributed 14 goals and a dazzling array of dribbles that thrilled the Paris crowd.
Real Madrid’s star Kylian Mbappé, despite his explosive talent, finds himself lower on the list after a season hampered by injury and a premature Champions League exit. His 22 goals still highlight his quality, but the voting panel appears to reward complete, trophy‑laden campaigns over raw talent alone.
Chelsea’s unexpected triumph in the Club World Cup thrust a few of their players into the limelight. Cole Palmer, who netted 19 goals and notched a hat‑trick in the final, has vaulted into the top‑15 of the rankings. His rise underscores how global tournaments beyond the traditional European stage can shape voter perception.
The methodology behind the ranking blends quantitative metrics – goals, assists, clean sheets – with qualitative factors like decisive moments, leadership, and the calibre of trophies won. For defenders and midfielders, clean sheets and pass‑completion rates are also weighed, making the race a true all‑round assessment rather than a pure goal‑scorer’s contest.
One notable shift for the 2025 edition is the timeframe of eligibility. Unlike previous years where performances in the early months of the following season could tip the scales, this cycle restricts voting to the completed 2024/25 campaign. That means no late‑season heroics in 2025‑26 can sway the votes, forcing panels to evaluate the entire body of work rather than a few standout matches.
Social media buzz and fan polls also play a subtle role, as the global audience amplifies certain narratives. Dembele’s transformation narrative – from a heavily criticised Barcelona purchase to a Champions League hero – has resonated powerfully across platforms, adding a human‑interest angle that often complements pure statistics.
Meanwhile, Yamal’s story as a teenage phenom breaking into senior football has captured the imagination of a new generation of fans. His ascent highlights a growing trend: the Ballon d’Or is increasingly rewarding youthful exuberance alongside seasoned professionalism.
The final ceremony, set for September 22, 2025, will be hosted in Paris – a symbolic nod to Dembele’s club, though the venue is yet to be confirmed. The event promises a star‑studded lineup, live performances, and a moment of anticipation as the football world finally crowns the player who defined the 2024‑25 season.
Regardless of who lifts the trophy, the 2025 race illustrates a broader evolution in the game: talent is crossing borders faster, young stars are making immediate impacts, and the voting process is adapting to reward comprehensive excellence over fleeting brilliance.
