On Tuesday, October 28, 2025, the DFB-Pokal Round of 16 delivers one of Germany’s most anticipated cup ties as Eintracht Frankfurt hosts Borussia Dortmund at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt am Main. The stage is set for a battle between raw emotion and ruthless efficiency — Frankfurt, desperate to break their recent cup curse, against a Dortmund side riding high on momentum and a chilling record against their hosts.
Defensive Chaos Meets Clinical Precision
Frankfurt’s recent form reads like a thriller with too many plot holes. Just three days before this clash, they beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at home, with Jonathan Burkardt netting both goals. But that win masks a deeper crisis: in their last eight matches across all competitions, they’ve conceded 22 goals. Six of those losses came by two or more goals. Their defense, once a source of pride under Oliver Glasner, has unraveled. They’ve lost three of their last four home games — a troubling trend at a stadium that holds over 51,500 fans, many of whom still remember the 2018 DFB-Pokal triumph.
Meanwhile, Dortmund enter this match with the poise of a team that knows how to win when it matters. Their 1-0 win over 1. FC Köln on Saturday wasn’t pretty — but it was effective. Maximilian Beier scored the winner in the 87th minute, continuing a pattern: Dortmund win tight games. They’ve conceded just 0.8 goals per match in their last eight outings, compared to Frankfurt’s 2.3. And here’s the kicker — they’ve won six of their last seven meetings against Frankfurt, including a 2-0 away win in January 2025.
The Kovač Connection: A Ghost Haunting Frankfurt
The narrative doesn’t end with tactics. It’s personal. Niko Kovač, Dortmund’s 53-year-old manager, once led Eintracht Frankfurt to the 2018 DFB-Pokal title. He’s the last coach to lift the trophy for the Eagles. Now, he’s back — not as a hero, but as an adversary. And he knows exactly where Frankfurt’s weaknesses lie.
Frankfurt’s current head coach, Dino Toppmöller, has seen his cup dreams evaporate twice already. In both of his first two seasons, his team exited at this exact stage — first to 1. FC Saarbrücken, then to RB Leipzig. The pressure is mounting. Fans are asking: Is this the year he breaks the curse? Or is Kovač the ghost he can’t outrun?
Team News: Absences and Returns
Frankfurt’s injury list is a nightmare. Captain Emre Can, 31, and winger Julien Duranville, 20, are both out — the latter a key outlet on the left flank. That leaves Toppmöller with a thin squad, forcing younger players into high-pressure roles.
On the other side, a twist: Niklas Süle, the 29-year-old center-back born and raised in Frankfurt, could start for Dortmund. He’s been a revelation since joining in the summer, bringing composure and aerial dominance. Imagine the emotional weight of Süle facing his boyhood club — a local boy returning not as a fan, but as an enemy.
Statistical Edge: Who Really Controls the Game?
Numbers don’t lie, but they can mislead. Frankfurt averages 54.6% possession and nearly five shots on target per game — sounds dominant, right? But they also allow 5.1 shots on target and 12.8 total attempts. Their defense is porous. They’re the team that scores first — then panics.
Dortmund? They dominate the final third. They average 5.4 shots on target per match — and convert at a higher rate. Their midfield trio of Julian Brandt and Serhou Guirassy has found rhythm. Brandt, 28, is creating chances like he did in his peak years. Guirassy, 29, is scoring when it counts — and he’s lethal in transition.
And then there’s the Champions League context: Dortmund scored four goals in each of their first three group matches. That’s not a fluke. That’s a machine. Frankfurt, meanwhile, were humiliated 5-1 by Liverpool at home just days ago. The confidence gap is real.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Cup
This isn’t just about quarterfinals. For Dortmund, a win extends their three-match DFB-Pokal winning streak — a sign they’re finally clicking under Kovač after last season’s shock exit to VfL Wolfsburg, Kovač’s former club. For Frankfurt, it’s about survival — of morale, of reputation, of Toppmöller’s future.
Betting markets reflect the imbalance. Borussia Dortmund are -123 on the Asian Handicap -0.25. Forebet gives a 35% chance of a draw. But The Hard Tackle nails it: “Dortmund’s superior structure and efficiency in the final third should see them progress.”
What’s Next?
If Dortmund win, they’ll face either Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen in the quarterfinals — a dream draw for their title ambitions. If Frankfurt pull off the upset, it would be their first DFB-Pokal quarterfinal since 2023 — and could spark a resurgence under Toppmöller.
But history says otherwise. Dortmund have won six of the last seven meetings. Frankfurt haven’t beaten them in over a year. And Kovač? He knows how to beat them — better than anyone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Niko Kovač such a significant figure in this match?
Kovač led Eintracht Frankfurt to their last DFB-Pokal title in 2018 — the club’s first major trophy in 30 years. Now, as Dortmund’s manager, he’s returning to the same stadium where he once celebrated. His intimate knowledge of Frankfurt’s setup, tactics, and psychological vulnerabilities makes him the perfect foil for current coach Dino Toppmöller. This isn’t just a match — it’s a reckoning.
How does Frankfurt’s defensive record impact their chances?
Frankfurt have conceded 22 goals in their last eight matches across all competitions — an average of 2.75 per game. Their last six home matches saw them concede at least once in five of them. Against Dortmund, who average 1.8 goals per match and have scored four goals in three consecutive Champions League games, this is a recipe for disaster. Their high-pressing style leaves gaps — and Dortmund’s counterattacks exploit them ruthlessly.
What’s the likelihood of a draw or an upset?
Statistical models give Dortmund a 49.26% chance of victory, with a draw at 35%. While Frankfurt’s home crowd and attacking firepower (they’ve scored 2+ goals in five of their last eight matches) make an upset possible, their defensive instability makes it unlikely. Only one of their last seven wins came by more than one goal — and Dortmund have kept clean sheets in four of their last six away games.
Why is the 2-1 prediction so common among analysts?
Analysts like The Hard Tackle and Sports Gambler predict 2-1 because it fits the pattern: Frankfurt will score first or early, fueled by home energy and Burkardt’s form. But Dortmund, with Guirassy and Brandt, have the composure to equalize before halftime and strike late. Their superior set-piece defense and clinical finishing — plus Frankfurt’s tendency to collapse under pressure — make this the most probable outcome.
How does the absence of Emre Can affect Frankfurt’s midfield?
Can, 31, is Frankfurt’s emotional and tactical anchor. His ability to break up play and distribute under pressure is irreplaceable. Without him, the midfield becomes vulnerable to Dortmund’s high press and quick transitions. Toppmöller may have to rely on 20-year-old Jannik Huth — a promising but inexperienced player — in a high-stakes game. That’s a gamble few expect to pay off.
Is this match a turning point for Dino Toppmöller’s tenure?
Absolutely. Toppmöller has failed to reach the DFB-Pokal quarterfinals in both of his first two seasons. With Frankfurt sitting sixth in the Bundesliga and their defense in freefall, a third early exit would intensify calls for change. This match could determine whether he gets another season — or whether the club turns to a more experienced coach to revive their European ambitions.
Cheri Gray
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